If the world is moving towards a multipolar state, a big question is whether Africa will be one of those poles. World Bank Group head Robert Zoellick, wrapping up a visit to the continent last week, sees no reason why it shouldn't be. But what will it take?

For one thing, Africa needs to reduce reliance on outside help.  Dependency does not breed respect. Pleas for economic aid, or technology transfer under the Kyoto protocol, don't hold much promise of that; but it is possible, I suppose, that history will not repeat itself, and aid could be used to jump-start locally driven innovation and development.

There is in fact a degree of innovation already underway. And not only in South Africa, where there are large-scale industries like Sasol's oil-from-coal technology or the development of the Joule, an all-electric car to be launched next year. As a Business Report article on Zoellick's visit points out, even Rwanda has demonstrated some initiative:

In Rwanda Zoellick took a short boat ride on the scenic Lake Kivu, bounded by undulating hills and the active Nyiragongo volcano, to a floating plant that produces 2.5MW of electricity from methane gas drawn up from the lake.

"This is just a fascinating example of the innovation we have seen throughout the Rwandan government and a good example of regional co-operation," he said.

The government-funded pilot has proved the viability of the process, and has already attracted a private investor who will produce 25MW of electricity and quadruple this output in the second phase. Rwanda is negotiating commercial production contracts designed as public-private partnerships with other investors to tap into the lake's power generation potential, estimated at 500MW of continuous production over 50 years.

And methane from lakes is an apt application, what with the hydropower potential of the Inga dams on the Congo River, capable of generating 100,000 MW (13% of global generating capacity).

The other factor in developing Africa's political influence is that tiny nations with no international influence need to club together so their voice can be heard. The Pan African Parliament is doing little, if anything, towards that goal. Any voice that exists, for example in UN climate negotiations, comes from South Africa acting more or less on its own.

I imagine there will need to be regional alliances, perhaps on the scale of the Southern African Development Community, but SADC doesn't do much beyond trying to set agreements on things like axle loads on heavy trucks that ply their trade across boundaries within the region. Perhaps I'm being a little harsh, but certainly SADC has little clout on global issues - nor, I imagine, within the Pan African Parliament.

According to Zoellick, Rwanda is showing signs of movement in that direction:

Clearly impressed by the progress on the path of reform, Zoellick said: "On issue after issue, this is a country on the move and it is a country that brings great momentum; it recognises the need to develop regional integration, and it has a president and a team that has garnered respect".

Nice to hear some good news from that quarter. And it wouldn't be a moment too soon to strengthen regional alliances, before conflict over resources escalates into something unmanageable. With strengthened institutional structures and partnerships, there would at least be forums for discussing disagreements without having to appeal - once again - to the UN or some other international mediator.


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