Congratulations to everyone who got counted in the just released U.S. census-- 308 million of us, up almost 10% from 2000.  Mainland China is also completing a census and experts are expecting a population around 1.33 billion, up 5% from 2000, when their last census was completed.  China's population is expected to peak in 2030 at about 1.4 billion and then start heading down at around 4% every ten years.  Should these trends continue (which they won't), the population of the United States will surpass China's around 2130.

Given this expected peak of China's population amid continuing urbanization (which tends to reduce family size considerably), does this mean that the single-child policy will be ending soon?  Surprisingly, it doesn't appear so.  If I were running the Party, I'd declare victory.  But that would mean dismantling an entire bureaucratic apparatus and when have you ever seen that happen? 

So, China will be confronting a rapidly aging population with a hit or miss pension structure and often one young person being the sole progeny of four grandparents. Add the expectations of Confucian familial piety and you've got a tremendous amount of pressure for young people here. I'll take America's tiny Social Security problems anyday, even if you throw in the much more worrisome Medicare.