Are Families Choosing Walkable Communities?
We are well aware of the young professional boom in our largest cities and walkable communities. But are families choosing these communities as well? We looked at the 50 largest cities and examined the growth rates of children, total and those between 0 and 5 to see if families are choosing to live in some of our most walkable communities.
Methodology
Using Walk Score data we examined the growth rates of children, residents under the age of 18, in the 50 largest cities. We selected communities with a Walk Score of 70 or higher (very walkable) and compared the 2013 ACS 5 Year estimates against the 2000 Census data using Block Group data.
Note: Louisville, KY was not included following its consolidation with Jefferson County. Raleigh, North Carolina and Jacksonville, Florida were also not included as their Block Group boundaries were too inconsistent to provide reliable information between the sample years.
The following cities were not included as they had no communities with a Walk Score of 70 of above: Virginia Beach, VA; Fort Worth, TX; Wichita, KS; Memphis, TN; Colorado Springs, CO; Mesa, AZ; Arlington, TX; Phoenix, AZ.
Overall Growth in Walkable Communities
Overall the growth of families, measured by number of residents under the age of 18, in walkable communities has been unimpressive. Walkable communities lost 11.99 percent of residents under 18 while non-walkable communities posted a gain of 2.78 percent. The difference signifies that families are not finding their way into our most walkable communities. While most of the nation's largest cities have shown growth in residents under 18, particularly in more recent years, they are not choosing more walkable communities. Of the cities studied only Charlotte, NC and Seattle, WA posted growth in all residents under 18 in walkable communities.
Our Youngest of Families
The outlook for our youngest families, those with children under the age of 5, was slightly more optimistic. While of the 50 largest cities they still posted a loss of 2.98 percent, 13 cities posted growth. Still, non-walkable communities experienced a growth rate of 3.78 percent. Of the 13 that posted growth it was a smattering of Sun Belt boomtowns, Pacific Northwest growth, and Mid-Atlantic & Midwestern staples. The growth in these 13 cities hints that younger families, particularly young professionals that are now having children might be more inclined to stay in more urban walkable areas. Being that their children are still below school age, there is still the concern that they could leave much like a report earlier this month from Washington, D.C. suggested.
With the exception of a few cities, those that saw a large decrease in children under 5 in walkable communities experienced an increase in non-walkable communities. Cities that experienced growth of those under 5 in their most walkable communities also experienced growth in non-walkable communities. It is obvious that the cities with the largest declines in their walkable communities are those that are least walkable, while the cities with growth are some of the most walkable. Cities such as Houston, Charlotte, Nashville, and Indianapolis served as surprises as well. While most of these cities have been rapidly growing in recent years, the growth of children under 5 matched or exceeded that of less walkable communities. These cities have seen rapid changes to their urban cores, becoming far more dense and walkable than in recent years, and families are seemingly embracing this urbanization. Cities such as San Francisco, Seattle, Boston and Miami, often known for their low percentages of children, experienced tremendous growth rates in those under five. In the cases of San Francisco and Boston, both cities posted growth in their walkable communities while showing declines in their non-walkable communities.
Suburban by Choice?
The question remains whether the families creating growth in non-walkable communities is by choice. Education access and quality remains a significant issue in most of our major cities, as does the provision of adequate sized and priced housing that meets the demands of families. The cities with the greatest declines are also some of our most suburban leaving one to presume that options for an urban walkable life remain few and far between for families. Cities that experienced rapid growth are also some of the nation's fastest growing cities, and the question will remain whether these new generations of parents are truly committed to urban living, or are they just stretching out their urban lifestyles for as long as they can. And if families are committed to remaining urban will cities have the necessary resources and opportunities to support this lifestyle?
In the next few weeks we will be examining the role of housing, education, and play, and its influence on the growth rates in these cities as well as the opportunities that will exist for families.